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8月以来上涨近14% 金价为何重现升势？_我的网站

A |     WASHINGTON -- President Joe Biden postponed a trip to Colorado on Monday to stay in Washington and focus on the growing conflict in the Middle East, setting aside an opportunity to pitch his economic accomplishments as he runs for reelection.Biden had been heading to the district of Rep. Lauren Boebert, where he was to visit CS Wind, the world's largest facility for wind tower manufacturing. But the White House said just a few hours before Biden was set to take off for the trip that it would be rescheduled. Instead, Biden is expected to hold a series of high-level meetings with aides on Israel and the growing humanitarian concerns in Gaza. The Democratic president is weighing a decision to visit the region in what would be a striking symbol of support for Israel following the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas that killed more than 1,400 Israelis. More than 2,300 Palestinians have died in the ensuing Israeli bombardment of Gaza, which is bracing for a ground invasion. At least 30 U.S. citizens have also died, and 13 remain missing, the State Department says.It’s rare for presidential travel, which is meticulously planned for security and logistical purposes, to be called off at the last minute. Biden's decision reflects the competing pressure that he faces as he tries to manage bloody conflicts in Ukraine, where the Russian invasion is in its second year, and now the Middle East, always one of the world's most combustible regions. There are concerns that a second front could open in Israel's north, which neighbors the Hezbollah-controlled territory in Lebanon's south. There have already been reports of sporadic fighting along the border. Iran backs both Hamas and Hezbollah. Two U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups have been dispatched to the Eastern Mediterranean in an effort to deter a widening war.Domestic and foreign policy priorities have collided for Biden before.He was scheduled to visit Papua New Guinea and Australia after attending the Group of Seven meeting in Japan earlier this year, but the two stops were scrubbed because of the standoff over the debt ceiling back in Washington. Rather than deepening ties with countries in the Indo-Pacific region, Biden jetted home to hash out a deal with Republicans to prevent a first-ever default. The change in Monday's schedule costs Biden a chance to turn Boebert into a political foil as he showcases the Inflation Reduction Act, his signature domestic legislation and the source of hundreds of billions of dollars for clean energy incentives.Boebert has called the law “a massive failure” that “needs to be repealed.” But Biden was planning to demonstrate otherwise when he visits CS Wind in the town of Pueblo. The company is undergoing a $200 million expansion that is expected to create 850 jobs by 2026 with help from the tax benefits in the law.Pueblo is one of the anchors of Colorado's sprawling 3rd Congressional District, which covers more ground than Pennsylvania. Boebert won her seat in 2020 and barely held on to it during the 2022 midterms. There's maximum chaos in Congress right now for House Republicans, who ousted Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California as their speaker but have been unable to settle on a replacement. Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, a prominent ally of Donald Trump, is the current leading candidate to replace McCarthy, but victory for him is uncertain. Despite low unemployment and slowing inflation, Biden has been struggling to convince Americans that his policies are good for the U.S. economy.An August poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research said just 36% of U.S. adults approve of Biden's handling of the economy, roughly where his numbers have stood for a year and a half. The president and other top administration officials have been traveling the country to promote their Investing in America agenda. Last week, the president visited a marine terminal in Philadelphia, where he announced that the area would become one of seven regional hubs for producing and delivering hydrogen fuel.“I truly believe this country is about to take off," Biden said. "For the first time in a long time we’re actually investing in America.”。    　　近期，黄金价格重现升势。Wind数据显示，8月24日，国际黄金现货价格（以伦敦金现货价格为例）盘中最高触及4659.96美元/盎司，当日涨幅接近1%，创今年5月份以来新高。拉长时间看，截至8月21日收盘，8月份以来伦敦金现货价格已上涨13.89%。与此形成对比的是，今年上半年，伦敦金现货价格在1月末创出历史新高后便持续回调，整体录得下跌7.20%。

B | 　　国际黄金期货价格也同步走高，COMEX黄金期货价格8月24日盘中最高触及4716.7美元/盎司，突破4700美元/盎司关口。截至8月21日收盘，8月份以来涨幅也达到13.50%。

C | 　　金价缘何出现上行？领秀财经首席分析师刘思源在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，黄金价格短期上涨的主要原因是市场对美债实际利率与美元信用重估，市场预期美元贬值，由此引发金价被动上涨。　　如其所述，近期金价重拾升势，美元指数则转而回落。自7月末开始，美元指数持续承压，7月27日至8月21日，美元指数下跌2.58%，从101点高位回落至当前99点水平。

D | 　　“当前金价的中长期底部主要是由美国财政信用、全球央行购金等结构性力量提供支撑；短期波动仍受实际利率、美元指数和流动性等因素影响。

E | ”东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示。　　刘思源认为，全球央行持续购金，使实物黄金需求成为中长线市场支撑。在美联储降息周期尚未完成之前，实际利率下行和美元信用重估提供了更多上升动力。

F | 　　从资金角度看下半年金价行情，财通证券日前发布的研报认为，整体来看，下半年黄金资金面边际改善，全球央行长期购金趋势不变、实际利率潜在下行预期带动ETF资金进场、投机资金低位回补，共同支撑金价。同时，报告称，考虑到每当美元全球储备占比回落，对应黄金储备占比显著抬升，未来各国央行购金趋势仍然强势，新兴市场购金仍有较大提升空间。　　展望未来金价走势，瞿瑞认为，基准情景下，美国通胀缓慢回落、美联储维持高利率不变，金价中枢缓步上移至4500美元/盎司附近。乐观情景下，若美联储开启降息周期且全球央行购金加速，金价有望重返5000美元/盎司上方；悲观情景下，若国际地缘冲突升级推动油价冲高、通胀反弹叠加流动性收紧，金价或二次探底至3800美元/盎司。

G | （文章来源：证券日报）。

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